Why February’s Rate Hike Just Made Brisbane’s Prestige Market More Exclusive
The Reserve Bank’s latest decision has been simple but impactful: a 25-basis-point increase to the cash rate, taking it to 3.85%. This is the first hike since late 2023, and it comes amid stronger-than-expected private demand, persistent inflation, and ongoing capacity pressures.
For most Australians, higher rates mean tighter borrowing and stricter serviceability tests. Families hoping to move from $800K–$1.5M homes now face a tougher conversation with lenders, which often leads to fewer transactions. But in Brisbane’s prestige market, the story is very different.
The Mid-Market Slowdown
Property transactions operate in a connected system. One sale enables another, whether it’s an upgrade, a downsizing move, or a sideways trade. When activity slows in one part of the market, it can ripple upward, affecting higher-priced properties.
Today, that slowdown is concentrated in the $800K–$1.5M range. Buyers here are the most sensitive to interest rates. If they can’t secure finance, higher-end sellers are left with fewer potential buyers. For example, a $2.5M home in Bulimba can’t move into a $4M property in Ascot if buyers from $1.2M homes are unable to transact.
High-net-worth buyers at the top end, however, are largely insulated. Whether self-funded, equity-rich, or moving from a business exit, their purchasing power is unaffected. The only change is in competition: there are simply fewer buyers at this level.
What the Numbers Say
Brisbane’s market dynamics are clear in the data:
Price Growth: KPMG’s January 2026 Residential Property Outlook forecasts Brisbane house prices rising by 10.9% this year—well above Sydney at 5.8% and Melbourne at 6.8%. That’s over $320,000 of value growth on a $3M home.
Supply Constraints: SQM Research shows Brisbane listings sit 31% below the five-year average. The expected “February flush” of new stock hasn’t arrived.
Rental Pressure: Vacancy rates are around 1.0%, well below the 3% benchmark for a balanced market. Investor demand remains strong, supporting both rental floors and property values.
Quartile Performance: Cotality data reveals lower quartile houses grew 13% annually, compared with 7.9% for upper-quartile homes. Demand continues to concentrate where buyers can access finance, not necessarily where they want to buy.
Why This Could Be a Strategic Opportunity
Here’s the insight many national commentators miss: once mid-market activity regains momentum—whether rates stabilise or ease—pent-up demand will be released quickly. Families previously stuck in $1M–$2M homes will move decisively on quality listings they can afford.
This is particularly important for prestige buyers. The next wave of upgraders will enter the $2M–$3.5M range, increasing competition and pushing prices higher. The biggest risk at the top end isn’t overpaying now—it’s waiting until mid-market activity surges and more buyers flood the market.
In short, February’s rate hike has widened the gap: mid-market turnover tightens, while the upper end has become quieter, a rare window for strategic buyers and sellers.
What It Means for Buyers and Sellers
Buyers above $2M: Competition is at a twelve-month low. Inventory is limited, and motivated sellers are still in the market. Acting now can secure properties before activity surges.
Sellers in the $2M–$5M range: Scarcity in prestige stock is real and measurable. Listing now ensures exposure to serious buyers in a thin market, rather than competing with a backlog of upgraders once mid-market activity resumes.
Understanding your place in the market flow is key. The current window is rare, and timing will make all the difference.
